High Hit% Calibur Farming Guide

AydinY

AydinY

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Hi there! If you're like me, you're looking for a Calibur with high hit that's worthy of being transformed into a Dark Flow!

Other quests do come to mind when it comes to farming common weapons, mainly ones that have weapon only item boxes but I have not found one that is quite as efficient and quick to do as the Box Run. However, I will keep doing my research and I'll post my findings here.

To farm effectively, being a character with the section ID, Skyly, is a must! Every weapon drop that they encounter have a 13% chance of being a sword weapon. Another must have is having the addon, Item Reader, active. If you don't have it or not aware of it, please check out the following link. It's extremely vital for being able to see the hit% of any weapons that drop at a glance.

PSOBB Addon Plugin
If you don't have this installed already, you might want to set aside an hour or two dedicated to installing, setting it up, and customizing it to your liking. By the way, a huge thank you to @Soly and all the programmers who made this possible.

PW3 Box Run Strategy​

This guide will mainly be using the Box Run strategy as described in the link below and if you're not familiar with it, I highly suggest you take a look at it. Thank you @anime for this wonderful guide!

PW3 Box Run Guide

Each run of this quest is 44 boxes and takes less than three minutes (after a bit of practice) to complete before resetting.

Each box has only a 9% (1/11.1) chance of dropping a weapon.
I should also mention that drops from item boxes are NOT affected by boosts by events, weekly boosts, or Anguish modes.

The pattern for this area is 4/4/3 so one of the three rolls is not able to hit 90 or 100. (x1.33 to calculate the odds)
However, the calculations will be assuming that the roll for hit will be following one of the 4 patterns.

Formulas are as followed:
[(odds) x (11.1) x (1.33)] = probability of one box containing Calibur with desired hit
[(result from formula above)/44] = amount of runs estimated to find the Calibur

50 hit:
1/213,030
4,842 runs

60 hit:
1/1,247,916
28,362 runs

70 hit:
1/2,912,002
66,182 runs

80-90 hit:
1/8,710,170
197,958 runs
*It is worth noting that in this tier, the odds of getting 80% hit are the same as getting 85% or 90% hit.*

90 hit Calibur with special untekked for tekking to 100 hit:
1/29,526,000 per box
671,045 runs

It certainly is a bit of a grind but if you have a skyly character that you are leveling and wouldn't mind getting potentially super lucky with, this would be a good strategy to utilize.

More quests are coming soon!

Good luck and happy hunting!



If weapon box is opened in 4/4/4 pattern area:

Going for 90 hit:

13% that weapon is sword = 13%
13% sword will have hit = 1.69%
1/10000 (0.01%) sword will have 90 hit = 0.000169%

in conclusion, the odds of getting a 90 hit sword are approximately
1/590,000

---

Going for 100 hit (untekked 90 hit weapon):

13% that weapon is sword = 13%
30% that sword is untekked = 3.9%
13% untekked sword has hit = 0.507%
1/10,000 (0.01%) untekked sword has 90 hit = 0.0000507%

In conclusion, the odds of getting a 100 hit sword are approximately
1/2,000,000

---

Lower hits assuming that the area pattern is 4/4/4 from weapon box:

40 hit:

50 hit: 0.006929%
1/14,430

60 hit:0.001183%
1/84,530

70 hit: 0.000507%
1/197,250

80 hit or higher: 0.000169%
1/590,000

---

90 hit:
13/100 that weapon is sword = 13%
13/100 sword will have hit = 1.69%
1/10000 sword will have 90 hit = 0.000169%

50 hit:
13/100 that weapon is sword = 13%
13/100 sword will have hit = 1.69%
0.41% sword will have 50 hit= 0.006929%

1/14432

---

60 hit:
13/100 that weapon is sword = 13%
13/100 sword will have hit = 1.69%
0.07% sword will have 60 hit = 0.001183%

6/507185
1/84530

---

70 hit:
13/100 that weapon is sword = 13%
13/100 sword will have hit = 1.69%
0.03% sword will have 70 hit = 0.000507%

2/394,477
1/197,250

---

80 hit:
13/100 that weapon is sword = 13%
13/100 sword will have hit = 1.69%
0.01% sword will have 80 hit = 0.000169%

1/591716
1/590,000

---

Rare Weapon high hit chances:

40 hit: 00.1005%
1/1,000

50 hit: 00.024%
1/4,000

60 hit: 00.0045%
1/20,000

70 hit or higher: 00.0015%
1/50,000

Several of these fractions are simplified but are still good approximations.
All the possible hits from 70-90% have equal odds of those percentages being the resulting hit percent.
 
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Hey @AydinY sorry but your math is off in many places, here are the actual odds when opening 1 box in a PW3 run:

1726252277186.png

There's a lot of simplification you can't apply here and some errors you made along the way:
1) Seabed Upper boxes drop weapons with a chance of 8% in Ultimate, not 9%.
2) It's okay if you simplify the pattern to 4/4/4, but you can't just divide by this arbitrary 1.33 factor here (I don't really know where you got that from). The problem is that there are chances that you can get a certain hit% on both pattern 3 and 4, up to 75 Hit untekked. This makes the math way more complicated and you can't just simplify by removing a full pattern roll and replacing it with a divisor to make up for it.
3) The odds of a weapon rolling hit is 14.2625% exactly. I don't know where you got the 13% from.
4) When you hunt for let's say a 50Hit Calibur, you don't care about it having exactly 50Hit, you care that it has at least 50Hit. This changes the math drastically, because now in the pattern 4 column you don't only look at the 0.41% that it drops with 50Hit, but you have to think about the range from 50Hit to 90Hit. Basically it's just the sum until 90Hit, which would be 0.72% (more complicated than that because you have to factor chance of untekk and chance of dropping without a special).

So yeah your numbers are unfortunately off. If you want to understand the full math behind it, feel free to dm me on discord and I can show you my spreadsheet with the math.

Also what @SirLagsAlot said is true, the best way to hunt common weapons is EN4 on A3. PW3 is still good, but way worse than EN4.
 
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Replying to @DM 경호

Hey there! Sorry about the delay in replying. I just got home from work. Seeing your explanation and comparing it to my own work, I can see where I made a massive error in my math. I was focused on how because the area in PW3 has roll patterns on 3/4/4, I decided based on the fact that if the roll for hit was on 3, it would not apply in my math yet there is a chance it can have good hit. That's a massive error and I thank you for catching it. This will be corrected in the near future.

There are other errors in my math that you caught that I will make corrections on as soon as possible. Each roll having 5% chance of having hit, I believe from my math if we deduct the rolls having no hit if multiple rolls land in the hit% range, I calculated that it would be just over 13% for each to have hit. Then again, this is coming from my experience in statistics class that I had over 10 years ago in high school. However, I won't deny this may be another massive error in my math.

Long story short, thank you very much for catching these errors and I will be correcting them soon. I'll also be doing research on EN4 and will be reporting my findings here.
 
@AydinY hey no worries and it's cool that people are curious about this topic.

"Over 13%" is correct for Hit, but we can math it out exactly. No need for simplification here.

In Ultimate you have 3 pattern rolls and only need at least 1 to roll for Hit, which has a 5% chance. The language here ("at least") already is an indicator of what math you have to use here, it's the binomial distribution:

For any chance X that is rolled Y times, the chance of at least 1 success is:
1 - (1 - X)^Y
E.g. for Hit: 1 - (1 - 5%)^3 = 14.2625%

If you calculate odds of weapons having a certain amount of Hit on same patterns like 3/3/3 or 4/4/4, you can always use this 14.2625% chance. It becomes way more complicated for mixed patterns like 4/4/3. You have to make use of the "Law of total probability" here. Basically it goes like this:

Let's go by arbitrary numbers: You have the first pattern that lands on 50+Hit with 30%. You have a second pattern that lands on 50+Hit with 20%. And then a third pattern that lands on 50+Hit with 60%. What is the likelihood that my weapon will have 50+Hit? We still go by the same 5% chance to roll Hit. Then the chance of your weapon having Hit and it being 50+ is:
5% * 30% + 5% * 20% * 95% + 5% * 60% * 95%^2.
As you can see there are these 95% and 95%^2 terms appearing to account for the first and second roll failing the 5% Hit chance.

By the way I almost forgot about it, I wrote this wiki page: https://wiki.pioneer2.net/w/Item_drops
Here most of the probability math of this game is explained. It doesn't go into detail for Hit, but the math is the same.

I'll dm you my spreadsheets. Basically the math for EN4 runs and Box runs has already been done and you can share my findings here if you want. If you want to do it yourself though I totally understand, best way to learn and understand this topic in depth :)
 
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